Preparing for ‘26: Turnout Models

The Clarity team has released the initial version of the 2026 turnout models for planning and preparation. Our national models are built by a team of political data experts using innovative techniques, multi-modal data collection, and a hands-on approach to ensure accuracy and usability in today’s political landscape. 

The initial version of the Clarity 2026 General Turnout model predicts the likelihood that an individual will vote in the General Election.

This version of the model is designed specifically for projections and planning. You can use it for Scenarios and paths to victory, planning programs, sampling, weighting, and analysis in the aggregate.

In the coming months, we’ll have more updates to this model for individual targeting use cases!

In addition to the turnout model, we're currently updating our core national models and Turnout Models specific to New Jersey and Virginia for the 2025 election to provide the most accurate analysis for your campaign or organization.

This year is an exciting one for research and advances in methodology–the nuts and bolts of our modeling processes. Real-world testing this cycle helps us validate hypotheses and integrate them into our 2026 offerings. If you'd like to receive insights and updates on our national models, just select the link here, and we’ll continue to deliver them right to your inbox! Don't worry; you can update your preferences at any time.

As always, we're here to support your specific use case, answer any questions, or discuss methodology (we love this part).