ICE Approval Dramatically Falls - Findings from the January Omnibus
In this month’s Clarity Omnibus, we surveyed likely midterm voters on their rating of President Trump’s job performance, their reaction to recent aggression by ICE, and their generic vote preference in this year’s midterm elections.
The Omnibus survey fields monthly, tracking opinions in a volatile environment, measuring things like support for the Trump administration’s latest actions and media consumption habits. As we launch into the midterms, our Omnibus is now weighted to mirror a likely midterm electorate, sampled from a universe of 2026 likely voters using the new Clarity 2026g Turnout score. Additional space on the survey is reserved for clients to ask their own questions. Get in touch here if you’re interested.
In Wake of Shootings, Voters Turn on ICE
In this month’s Omnibus survey, we asked voters to rate the favorability of several political figures and institutions. Among all people/organizations tested, ICE carried the lowest net favorability of -15%, followed closely by Donald Trump at -14%. Note that this survey was fielded after the killing of Renee Good and before the killing of Alex Pretti.
We also asked voters about the killing of Renee Good at the hands of ICE agents in Minneapolis. When asked if they agreed or disagreed that the ICE agent’s use of lethal force against Renee Good was justified, 51% of respondents disagreed, including 44% who strongly disagreed, to only 36% who agreed. News of this event has broken through among a wide swathe of likely midterm voters, with only 4% of voters indicating they had not heard of the shooting.
This represents a dramatic about-face in the favorability rating of ICE among voters. In the March 2025 Omnibus survey, voters held a net favorable view of ICE by 17 points, which corresponds to a 32 point decline in net favorability for ICE. This decline in net favorability can be seen across all voters, but with particularly large drops among certain subgroups, such as a decline of 54 points among Independent voters.
Trump Approval Continues to Slide
Trump’s approval rating has continued to decline, falling to a new low of his second term. 56% of voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while only 43% approve, representing a 2 point decline in net approval rating since December. More voters strongly disapprove (46%) than overall approve (43%) of the job Trump is doing as president.
Breaking out the President’s approval by issue, we see more intense dissatisfaction with the handling of certain issues. President Trump’s net approval rating for his handling of “Inflation and prices” has fallen to a second term low of -30%, including a -62% net approval rating among Independents. Voters also continue to disapprove of the President’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation, where he holds a -23% net approval rating.
Democrats’ Midterm Prospects Improve
In the first Clarity Omnibus survey of the midterm year, Democrats hold a 9 point advantage over Republicans on the Congressional generic ballot. 51% of likely midterm voters say they will support a Democratic candidate for Congress, tying the highest vote share for Democrats on the generic ballot since the start of Trump’s second term. Only 42% of likely midterm voters indicated support for a Republican candidate, marking the lowest vote share for Republicans on the generic ballot in the same time period. This also represents a net gain of 4 points on margin for Democrats since December.
This month, we polled likely midterm voters on their typical party preference in elections, asking whether they typically support one party or if their vote choice varies. Looking at Congressional generic ballot performance across the resulting subgroups, we can see that Democrats have consolidated their likely midterm voters more than Republicans. Democrats have a larger margin of support among voters who always or mostly support Democrats than Republicans do among voters who always or mostly support Republicans. Moreover, among self-identified “swing voters” who vote for both parties, Democrats hold a 15 point lead on the generic ballot.
This national survey of 1,147 likely 2026 voters was fielded from January 15th-22nd, 2026. Read the full report here!