A Post-Labor Day Look at The Midterm Environment
We are just over a month away from the midterms, and the good news is Trump’s disapproval rating is holding steady at an abysmal 58%, and Dems maintain a comfortable 7-point lead on the Generic Ballot. Here’s what else we noticed in our post-Labor Day Clarity Omnibus survey of likely midterm voters:
Inflation woes are at an all-time low, with even Republicans taking notice. Net approval of Trump's handling of inflation dropped 10 points from our last Omnibus survey in July to -39% among likely midterm voters.
Dems lead with voters most hurt by the economy: Democrats are winning voters who report struggling to pay their bills at least a few times per year by 21 points, and winning voters who anticipate their financial situation to get worse by 45 points.
On the generic ballot, Dems are comfortably leading among self identified Independents and swing voters, but are only +2% on soft disapprovers of Trump–there’s still ground to make up before the election.
Data centers remain unpopular among likely midterm voters, with 56% of voters in favor of discouraging or banning data center development in their area. Voters cite water usage, electricity prices, and opposition to AI as their top reasons for opposing the data center buildout.
Dems Maintain Strong Lead on Generic Ballot
In this month's Clarity Omnibus, Democrats hold a 7-point advantage on the Congressional Generic Ballot, with 50% of likely midterm voters choosing the Democratic candidate to 43% choosing the Republican candidate. This represents a strong position for Democrats as political advertisements ramp up and voters begin to cast ballots.
Much of Democrats’ lead is due to a solid advantage with self-identified Independents (+21) and swing voters (+15). Democrats also lead comfortably among those who are feeling most hurt by the economy, winning voters who report struggling to pay their bills at least a few times per year by 21 points, and winning voters who anticipate their financial situation to get worse by 45 points. However, Democrats still have room to grow in the coming weeks. Democrats lead by only 2 points among voters who somewhat disapprove of Trump’s job performance.
What's Driving Data Center Opposition?
With AI data center development playing a central role in campaigns across the country, we asked likely midterm voters for their stance on data center development in their area. 56% of voters are in favor of either discouraging or outright banning the development of data centers in their area, while only 17% support encouraging the development of data centers. Moreover, among voters who are in favor of discouraging or banning data center development, Democrats hold a 23 point advantage on the generic ballot.
For those voters who want to discourage or outright ban the development of data centers in their area, we asked a follow up question–why? Over 3/4ths of these voters provided one of three primary reasons for their aversion to data center development: electricity prices, water usage, and opposition to AI. Notably, 56% of voters who support discouraging, rather than banning, data center development, cite water usage or electricity prices as the primary reason for their stance. On the other hand, a plurality (38%) of voters who support an outright ban on data center development report opposition to AI as their primary motivation.
Taking a closer look at the voters who chose each of these three reasons, we find that voters who oppose data centers primarily due to water usage are somewhat more likely to use Tiktok, Instagram, and YouTube than those who oppose data centers due to electricity prices or opposition to AI. Voters who are driven by an opposition to AI skew slightly older than voters who oppose data center development for other reasons.
Trump's Approval Remains Abysmal
Six weeks out from the midterm elections, 58% of likely midterm voters disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, versus only 41% who approve. Breaking out his approval rating by issue, the picture becomes even more bleak for the President. Trump’s net approval for his handling of inflation and prices has fallen to -39%. Similarly, net approval of his handling of the conflict in Iran sits at -24%, his second worst issue area among all that were tested.
Splitting out Trump’s approval on these issues by party identification, we see that the president holds a net approval rating of merely 6% among self-identified Republicans for his handling of inflation and prices, another all-time low. Among Independents, his net approval on the issue sits at -72%, only slightly more positive than his net approval rating among Democrats on the issue.
This national survey of 1,046 likely 2026 voters was fielded from September 11th-16th, 2026. It was weighted using the recently released Clarity 2026g Turnout v3 model. You can dig deeper and read the entire Omnibus report here. Detailed toplines and crosstabs are also available to subscribers on our Polling Portal.