We were proud to do our small part providing models and targeting guidance for many of the Senate, Governors, and state legislative races across the country this year as well as marriage equality, issue and other initiative campaigns. Our team worked in Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Virginia, West Virginia, and Washington State.
This really was the year that highlighted the necessity of having good data and targeting, and actually understanding the numbers. With so many close races and tight budgets, having an efficiently targeted persusasion and turnout operation was critical.
We also wanted to share a fun last minute project. After all our 'real work' was out the door, we built an Election Projection Dashboard as a research exercise for future real-time modeling applications. It takes the actual results as they are reported, and uses a constantly self-adjusting model to project the final statewide margin. Kind of like Karl Rove tries to do but with a lot more math.
We deployed custom dashboards internally for several of our modeling clients like Senator-elect Kaine in Virginia, Senator Tester and Governor-elect Bullock in Montana but public ‘beta’ versions of county-based results and projections were available in certain races and states as a proof of concept. If you weren't able to see the system in action on Election Day, take a look at the ongoing race for Governor in Washington State:
While Republican Rob McKenna is saying that ballots mailed in during the last week will put him over the top, our model shows the outstanding votes are more likely to favor the Democrat Jay Inslee.
Again, congratulations on a job well done and we look forward to catching up with everyone soon.
Dan, David, Drew, and Tom