Back in September, we wrote about our partnership with Bloomberg Politics to bring you an eight-article series focusing on battleground states for 2016. We are only one week away from the end of a tumultuous campaign cycle and all eight articles are now available. The data-driven series featured Clarity’s national models, such as our party score and turnout score, to make assessments about the electorate and what each campaign would need to do in order to win the swingiest of swing states. Below you can find a link to each article as well as brief summary.
A quick primer on base votes, GOTV targets, and persuadable voters.
Trump has a narrow path to the White House, and any route he takes to get there almost certainly runs through the rust-belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. For Bloomberg’s first piece, we looked at working class white males living near factories that have closed in these key states.
We know that early vote has become an increasingly important piece of campaign strategy, but where does it matter most? This week looks at “The Arithmetic” in Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio.
After a longer than expected primary battle with Senator Sanders, the Clinton campaign has found itself struggling to get millennials fully on board. In this piece, we looked at who we might reasonably believe are Sanders “holdouts” and whether or not that would change the equation for Clinton in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
In a follow-up to Week 5, we helped Bloomberg identify voters that could cast ballots for third-parties. Clinton probably has more to lose to third-party candidates (See Week 4 for why) but what states could this plausibly tip the balance?
Generally, those with some connection to the military are more reliably Republican voters, but Trump’s confusing foreign policy, often at odds with the party, seems to have put significant amounts of military voters in play. This week we conducted an analysis of voters in close proximity to military bases to weigh Trump’s vulnerabilities in states like Virginia and Geogia.
If Republicans want to hold onto the Senate, they may very well have to concede the White House to Clinton. We went looking for those Americans splitting their vote between Clinton and other GOP candidates, and calculated the share of ticket splitter targets in key states.
Puerto Ricans fleeing the debt crisis and settling down in Florida may be a boost to Clinton’s chances of winning this key battleground state. In the final week, we looked at the share of Hispanic voters in and around key parts of Florida that lead Democrats to victory.