Last week, John Hagner sat down with POLITICO's Glenn Thrush to talk early voting. Joining him was Mark Stephenson, founder of Republican data science firm Red Oak Strategic. The podcast aims to answer questions about how campaigns use sophisticated data operations to make predictions and decisions based on early vote patterns. Early Voting has been on the rise in recent years and it is expected that early and absentee ballots could account for almost 40% of entire votes cast in 2016. "Every cycle since I have been doing campaigns, Early Voting has increased in its importance. It has become a larger and larger piece of the electorate...This cycle we expect that more than a third of the national Presidential votes will come in early," said Hagner. This emphasizes why it is crucial for any modern campaign to have an organized ground game that can utilize likely voter models and candidate support scores to turnout voters. Currently, Clinton has the edge in early voting-- backing up conventional wisdom that Clinton has a far superior ground game than that of the Republican nominee. Citing Clarity's models, Hagner stated, "As of [Thursday] night, 16.35 million votes have been cast. Our modeling says that Hillary Clinton is winning them by 5.7%." While noting that we are up overall, John encouraged everyone to knock on doors, make calls, and get out and vote! 

To hear more about early voting, check out the podcast available today on iTunes or read Glenn's article titled Scandals Matter, but So Does Turnout.

 

Every cycle since I have been doing campaigns, early voting has increased in its importance. This cycle we expect that more than a third of the national presidential votes will come in early.
— Hagner on POLITICO's "Off Message"