New Poll: Schauer and Peters Pull Ahead in Michigan Races
Both Democrats Hold Leads In Latest Clarity Campaign Labs Poll
Washington, D.C. – In a new poll conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs, Democrat Mark Schauer leads Republican Gov. Rick Snyder 47% to 40% in the gubernatorial race while in the race for U.S. Senate Democrat Gary Peters leads Republican Terri Lynn Land 46% to 40%. Both leads are outside of the poll’s margin of error.
The statewide poll of 859 likely voters was conducted February 22nd and 23rd and has a margin of error is +/- 2.55% with a 95% confidence interval.
Key findings in the poll include:
- Governor Snyder’s approval ratings are underwater. 46% of Michiganders disapprove of his job performance, while only 39% approve. This is unsurprising, as polls throughout the past year have shown him to among the most unpopular governors in the country.
- Mark Schauer’s positioning in the Governor’s race has improved from previous surveys, and from other public polling. The recent television campaign on his behalf appears to be working to improve his statewide name recognition.
- Among independent voters, Schauer holds a 38% to 33% lead in the race for Governor with 29% undecided while in the Senate race, Peters and Land each have support from about a third of the poll’s independent voters. This means both Democrats can easily grow their leads – Schauer by consolidating his Democratic base and Peters by targeting independents already supporting Schauer.
“With improved name recognition and continued dissolution with the direction Gov. Snyder is taking the state, Mark Schauer has the ability to continue building on this lead,” said John Hagner, Senior Vice President of Clarity Campaign Labs. “With undecided voters disapproving of Gov. Snyder’s performance by a huge 44% to 10% margin, a full 40% of these voters identify as Democrats with only 23% identifying as Republicans.”
The poll was conducted by live operators who connected voters to an automated poll, enabling Clarity Campaign Labs to contact both cell phones and landlines. As the nation’s leading Democratic voter contact-modeling firm, the pollsters were able to match individual voter file records to survey respondents to validate and weight the sample using the voter file-based Likely Voter 2014 model. 44% of the sample identified as Democrats, and 37% as Republicans, which mirrors the partisan breakdown of recent surveys from other pollsters.
Full results can be found here.
Clarity Campaign Labs is an industry leader in the rapidly growing world of data analytics and consulting with a team of campaign strategy, political data, and analytics experts. For more information on voter modeling, individually-targeted TV advertising or research and polling, visit www.claritycampaigns.com.