Great article by Alexander Burns @ Politico covering applications of analytics and modeling to downballot and off-year elections, something we’ve focused on at Clarity from the beginning.
In 2013, we provided analytics for key Democratic Senate victories in Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Virginia, and West Virginia. Our team also helped with key Governor’s victories in Missouri, Montana, and West Virginia as well as many incredible candidates, ballot campaigns, and organizations across Arkansas, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Utah, Virginia, and Washington.
The Politico article highlights both cost effective applications of our national models and innovative state legislative targeting in New Jersey this year:
Earlier this year, the Democratic firm Clarity Campaigns conducted an extensive modeling project for all 50 state parties, classing voters by more than a dozen demographic and political characteristics, including their views on climate and guns, as well as likelihood to drop off between presidential and nonpresidential elections.
That information will be available to local candidates and campaigns throughout the cycle.
The same firm has dived into the 2013 battleground of New Jersey with a project aimed at helping Democrats maintain control of the state Senate. Clarity is applying modeling tools to all 40 legislative districts in the state to map out what Democrats would need to accomplish in turnout to defend their majority. That doesn’t mean Obama-level analytics is coming to Bergen County this year. But even a modest dose of this information is still potentially decisive for Democratic legislators seeking to survive an expected New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie landslide at the top of the ticket.
“People will look at that and say, ‘It must be a massively cost-prohibitive project,’ but it’s not,” said Clarity’s Tom Bonier. “For basically a tiny bit more than what someone would have to budget for a statewide model, we’re able to create models for all of the Democratic candidates running in the state of New Jersey.”