We’re thrilled to announce that Clarity Campaign Labs is now offering exciting new predictive models in partnership with TargetSmart Communications!

Both models are available directly from TargetSmart and Clarity. The models are built on data from the National Voter File Coop, which is a joint venture of the State Democratic Parties to offer the best, most up-to-date voter lists on the market. This voter file will have nearly 250 updates in 2012, has the greatest depth of voting history and breadth of down-ballot district information, and has the most extensive early and absentee vote information available.

Combine the Coop’s voter data content with world-class data quality and contact information from TargetSmart, market-leading software and organizing tools from NGP VAN, and state-of-the-art predictive models from Clarity Campaign Labs, and we believe we have the best voter targeting and contact capability ever assembled.

National Party Model
Clarity Campaign Labs’ National Party Model predicts a voters’ likelihood of self-identifying as a member of the Democratic Party. The model was built using large samples of voters from the National Voter File Coop using data in multiple states layered with tens of thousands of interviews from surveys on party self-identification. Each of the ~185 million voters on the National Voter File Coop database was assigned a score that represents the probability of an individual identifying as a Democrat.

Key variables
Some of the key variables used by the model for predicting party include but are not limited to:

  • Party registration
  • Primary vote history
  • TargetSmart Consumer Data
  • Name, age, and gender
  • Ethnicity and race
  • Census and ACS data

National Turnout Model
Clarity Campaign Labs’ National Turnout Model predicts a voters’ likelihood of voting in the 2012 general election. This model was built using 500,000 randomly selected voters from the National Voter File Coop based on their 2008 general turnout history and other vote history patterns. Each of the ~185 million voters on the National Voter File Coop database was then assigned a score based on his or her probability of turning out.

Key variables
Some of the key variables used by the model for predicting turnout include but are not limited to:

  • Past turnout history
  • Aggregated household turnout history
  • TargetSmart move history
  • Age
  • Marital status
  • Consumer information on auto, business, and home ownership

If you are a current SmartVAN user, the scores from both models are available for immediate use. For prospective data customers of SmartVAN and other ad hoc data through the National Voter File Coop, please feel free to contact TargetSmart.

For more specific validation and documentation on these models, please feel free to contact Clarity Campaign Labs.