A quick primer on base votes, GOTV targets, and persuadable voters.
Battlegrounds Week 2: Tracing Donald Trump’s Rust-Belt Route
Trump has a narrow path to the White House, and any route he takes to get there almost certainly runs through the rust-belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. For Bloomberg’s first piece, we looked at working class white males living near factories that have closed in these key states.
Battlegrounds Week 3: Gaming the Six Week Election Day
We know that early vote has become an increasingly important piece of campaign strategy, but where does it matter most? This week looks at “The Arithmetic” in Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio.
Battlegrounds Week 4: The Clinton Campaign Has a Millennial Math Problem
After a longer than expected primary battle with Senator Sanders, the Clinton campaign has found itself struggling to get millennials fully on board. In this piece, we looked at who we might reasonably believe are Sanders “holdouts” and whether or not that would change the equation for Clinton in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
Battlegrounds Week 5: Which States Can Gary Johnson and Jill Stein Spoil?
In a follow-up to Week 5, we helped Bloomberg identify voters that could cast ballots for third-parties. Clinton probably has more to lose to third-party candidates (See Week 4 for why) but what states could this plausibly tip the balance?
Battlegrounds Week 6: Hillary Clinton’s Military Targets
Generally, those with some connection to the military are more reliably Republican voters, but Trump’s confusing foreign policy, often at odds with the party, seems to have put significant amounts of military voters in play. This week we conducted an analysis of voters in close proximity to military bases to weigh Trump’s vulnerabilities in states like Virginia and Geogia.
Battlegrounds Week 7: In Search of the Never-Trump-Ticket-Splitters
If Republicans want to hold onto the Senate, they may very well have to concede the White House to Clinton. We went looking for those Americans splitting their vote between Clinton and other GOP candidates, and calculated the share of ticket splitter targets in key states.
Battlegrounds Week 8: Clinton’s Florida Secret Weapon—New Puerto Rican Arrivals
Puerto Ricans fleeing the debt crisis and settling down in Florida may be a boost to Clinton’s chances of winning this key battleground state. In the final week, we looked at the share of Hispanic voters in and around key parts of Florida that lead Democrats to victory.
Once again, special thanks to Bloomberg Politics' Sasha Issenberg and Steven Yaccino for their detailed work on this project.