To put it simply, this dashboard will put the actual results into context – a campaign might be in a situation where they are up 10,000 votes with 30% of the precincts or counties yet to report. This application will tell us if that 10,000 vote margin is good or bad, based on the predicted partisanship of those areas that are yet to report.
We ran the dashboard for all three statewide races in Virginia in 2013 and called a narrow but historic Democratic sweep early in the evening, even for the Attorney General race which ultimately ended in a recount.
Follow us on Twitter @claritycampaign for publicly available projection sites in the future.
Background and methodology
As a research and development exercise for real-time modeling applications, we built an online dashboard that predicts final statewide results based on partial actual results for the Tim Kaine for Senate campaign in 2012.
Basically it takes the actual results as they are reported, and uses a constantly self-adjusting model to project the final result statewide based on the results reported thus far (taking into account geographic differences, turnout, performance and our latest Democratic Party Score v4).
This is essentially what many media outlets have staff doing behind the scenes in order to ‘call’ races but here you can follow the results in real time and make your own judgement based on the model.