Election Night Dashboards


Put real-time election returns into context using dynamic modeling. If a candidate is up 10,000 votes with 30% of the precincts yet to report our dashboard will predict whether they will win or lose, based on the modeled support of those areas yet to report, and automatically adjust the prediction as more votes are counted... more info

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Election Night Dashboards


Put real-time election returns into context using dynamic modeling. If a candidate is up 10,000 votes with 30% of the precincts yet to report our dashboard will predict whether they will win or lose, based on the modeled support of those areas yet to report, and automatically adjust the prediction as more votes are counted... more info

For 2016 we tracked the Presidential race in Virginia and North Carolina publicly and for friends and family of the Democratic Party we had a private dashboard tracking the Presidential, Senate, and many other races in every state. The dashboard is closed but contact us to request future access.

Background and Methodology


As a research and development exercise for real-time modeling applications, we first built an online dashboard in 2012 for the Tim Kaine for Senate campaign that correctly predicted final statewide results based on partial actual election results.

Background and Methodology


As a research and development exercise for real-time modeling applications, we first built an online dashboard in 2012 for the Tim Kaine for Senate campaign that correctly predicted final statewide results based on partial actual election results.

How does the Dashboard Work?

Initially a research and development exercise for real-time modeling applications, we built our first online dashboard for the next Vice President of the United States, Senator Tim Kaine. Here is a snapshot from the Kaine for Senate boiler room on Election Day in 2012 in Virginia. 

Our election projections are updated using live county or township election returns from the Associated Press, or precinct-level results in states where publicly available. Basically, it takes the actual results as they are reported, and uses a constantly self-adjusting model to project the final result statewide based on the results reported thus far (taking into account geographic differences, turnout, performance, our latest Democratic Party Score, and our Clinton Support Score).

Clarity’s real-time modeling is then enabled with TargetSmart data, the country’s leading national voter file.

2013

We ran the dashboard for all three statewide races in Virginia in 2013 and called a narrow but historic Democratic sweep early in the evening, even for the Attorney General Race which ultimately ended in a recount. 

McAuliffe for Governor (2-way projection)

Nov 5, 2013, 9:32:58 PM

Northam for Lieutenant Governor

Nov 5, 2013, 9:34:20 PM

Herring for Attorney General

Nov 5, 2013, 9:34:20 PM

2014 and 2015

In 2014, we dramatically expanded our projection dashboard map to include 13 Senate races tracked publicly and a number of private client dashboards for Governor's races. While most races were unfortunately decided quickly, the dashboard correctly predicted tight races in Virginia and Connecticut.

We significantly refined our processes for gubernatorial races in 2015. For example, in Kentucky the Dashboard accurately, but depressingly, predicted the final results within 20 minutes of polls closing and only a handful of precincts reporting in spite of conventional wisdom showing a Democratic win.

Request an Invite


Only approved Democratic friends and family will receive credentials for our future dashboards covering Presidential, Senate, and Gubernatorial races in all states (we're even tracking a few House races).

Request an Invite


Only approved Democratic friends and family will receive credentials for our future dashboards covering Presidential, Senate, and Gubernatorial races in all states (we're even tracking a few House races).

 

Please complete the form below

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Follow us on Twitter @claritycampaign for publicly available projection sites in the future.