Foundation of national models and scores

Statistical modeling and analytics were critical to the data-driven Obama campaign as well as Democratic candidates for state house and progressive issues across the country. In addition to the custom modeling options outlined below we have many national models and scores available in all 50 states + DC, which can be a much more cost effective option for many campaigns and are extremely predictive inputs into all of our custom projects.

Issue preference

• Climate Change Priority
• Choice Support
• Likely Fiscal Progressive
• Gun Control Support
• Immigration Progressive

Voter turnout

• Likely Voter 2014
• Likely Voter 2016
  • Available in Q2 2014
  • Refreshed in 2015 and 2016

Partisanship and activist

• Democratic Party Support
• Prospective Activist (new)

Demographic

• Likely College Graduate
• Frequency of Church Attendance
• Likely Gun Owner
• Source of News
• Source of TV
  • Likely Cable
  • Likely Satellite
• Spanish Language Preference

Custom predictive modeling for your organization

Taking advantage of the latest statistical and machine-learning algorithms, we built custom in-house tools to quickly deliver voter models and micro-targeting to accurately identify the individuals your campaign should contact. Some examples of possible models include turnout, prospective activist, candidate/issue support, fundraising, and persuasion.

Some key advantages of using our modeling and analytic team include:

• Higher accuracy through advanced modeling algorithms and methodology
• More efficient and cost-effective data collection through in-house survey tools
• Extensive actual campaign targeting experience on local, state, and national races

Additionally in-house analytics servers are dynamically updated with national voter file and consumer analytics data from the National Voter File Coop and TargetSmart Communications, providing additional efficiency for our custom modeling projects:

• No waiting for data exports or negotiating additional contracts
• Two industry leading major consumer data sources plus numerous boutique and custom enhancements
• Continually refreshed national models as inputs into custom projects

Landlines, cellphones, and the Internet coexist

Rather than relying on a single data source for polls, we specialize in using multiple modes of contact to collect the most accurate and cost-effective polling sample possible. We combine the use of our in-house IVR automated system with an extended network of live call centers and online panel providers for oversampling and more complex messaging research. This ensures our survey results are representative among youth, minority, and other ‘cell phone only’ and ‘online only’ populations, while at the same time reducing budget waste with participants who are happy to use IVR. Our online surveys also allow us to delve into more complicated issues without the response fatigue that comes with overly long, traditional phone surveys.

These examples are from our voter file-driven quarterly online panel surveys, if you are interested in adding a question please contact us. The last survey was a national sample balanced by US census to 1,613 respondents from the voter file.

Backed by “big data”

All of our polling, including our online surveys, is done using the best and most up-to-date voter and consumer files possible to ensure an accurate phone universe and final poll sample. This allows us to integrate our powerful modeling predictions with the polling to accurately reduce response bias in the toplines and weighting, provide additional insight in the crosstabs, and create a clearer picture of opinions.